A very interesting (and frightening) perspective on the future of more mature economies; using Japan as an example: Our Next Economic Plague: Japan Disease
Nutshell: Declining youth population in a country is nice reduction of burden; UNTIL everyone gets old and needs the population to be replenished.
Nutshell: Declining youth population in a country is nice reduction of burden; UNTIL everyone gets old and needs the population to be replenished.
This article hits so well the issue on the head, it's scary. Having been to Japan many times, I can verify that population mix and situation is as described -- perhaps a little better then the extreme painted here but close enough. Tying the situation to Europe and the US is also dead on. The lapse comes in two areas: China and Emerging Markets generally (Mid East, Africa, South America, Asia ex-China/Japan). China too is rapidly aging and it has not moved up fully the development pipeline that the author uses. The Emerging Markets I mentioned are young, dynamic -- and self-destructive. Will they commit suicide or fratracide? Big questions that we all will see unfold in our lifetime. Think I'll hide in comic books where heroes (rarely) die.
ReplyDelete